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Experts Draft: McGahee on the rise

I suffer from an overload of experts draft invitations every NFL preseason. It is one of the hazards of having worked in the fantasy industry for nine-plus years. This year has been no exception. By the time NFL training camps open, I'll likely have already logged a half-dozen drafts. But there's a gentleman's agreement that we all partake in each other's expert event.

The obvious benefit of these drafts is that the host company can use the results as compelling content. But there is also a gentlemen's agreement in place that the participants can also take the results and use it for their purposes, as well. So, as Yahoo! Sports Fantasy embarks on another season of fantasy football, I offer you the results from one of the recent experts drafts that I participated in. The draft was hosted by John Hansen of FantasyGuru.com, and his is always a well-attended draft as he is one of the few who offers up a prize for the winner – a big-screen TV. You can be assured that this was a no-nonsense affair given the stakes.

I'll be offering up results of these drafts, including Yahoo! Sports Fantasy's expert draft, as the preseason progresses. This FantasyGuru.com draft was my second of the '05 campaign. Check out the results (below), as well some of my thoughts about each of the first eight rounds:

Note: Draft was 14 rounds – start 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 Flex, 1 TE, 1 K, 1 Defense
6 points for rushing and receiving TDs, 4 points for passing TDs, 6 points for defensive and special teams TDs.
1 point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and 20 yards passing. 1 point is also awarded for each reception.
2 points for INTs, safeties and fumble recoveries, while sacks are worth 1 point.
5 points are awarded for a defensive shutout.

FantasyGuru.com Experts Draft (May 23, 2005)

1-1

LaDainian Tomlinson

San Diego

Running back

1-2

Priest Holmes

Kansas City

Running back

1-3

Shaun Alexander

Seattle

Running back

1-4

Edgerrin James

Indianapolis

Running back

1-5

Peyton Manning

Indianapolis

Quarterback

1-6

Willis McGahee

Buffalo

Running back

1-7

Tiki Barber

NY Giants

Running back

1-8

Ahman Green

Green Bay

Running back

1-9

Domanick Davis

Houston

Running back

1-10

Corey Dillon

New England

Running back

1-11

Deuce McAllister

New Orleans

Running back

1-12

Jamal Lewis

Baltimore

Running back

Round 1 analysis:
With a big-screen TV on the line, the experts weren't going to blow their first picks. Looking at what went down in Round 1, I don't have qualms with any of the players drafted. I'm not high on Ahman Green this season, but you can't argue his selection given that this is a league which awards a point per reception. Green has averaged 56 catches in Green Bay, although his reception total has declined in each of his five seasons as a Packer … Holmes went second overall. He's the player with the biggest risk/reward factor in the draft. The risk is his age, health and an emerging Larry Johnson behind him. The reward is that even if he only plays 10-12 games, he still might score 15-20 TDs in the Chiefs' juggernaut offense. I'm glad I wasn't in a position to make that call … My call was Willis McGahee with the sixth pick. He had just 22 receptions last season but, like the selections of Corey Dillon and Jamal Lewis later in the first round, my pick of McGahee has everything to do with what we does on the ground. In what was essentially his rookie season, he picked up 13 rushing TDs and seven 100-yard games in 11 starts. I'm counting on more of the same.

2-1

Rudi Johnson

Cincinnati

Running back

2-2

Clinton Portis

Washington

Running back

2-3

Randy Moss

Oakland

Wide receiver

2-4

Julius Jones

Dallas

Running back

2-5

Kevin Jones

Detroit

Running back

2-6

Curtis Martin

NY Jets

Running back

2-7

Steven Jackson

St. Louis

Running back

2-8

LaMont Jordan

Oakland

Running back

2-9

Chris Brown

Tennessee

Running back

2-10

Brian Westbrook

Philadelphia

Running back

2-11

Tatum Bell

Denver

Running back

2-12

Daunte Culpepper

Minnesota

Quarterback

Round 2 analysis:
No surprise that Randy Moss was the first WR off the board, but it was a little surprising that his name was called so late (15th overall). In a catches league, you'd expect the top WR on the board to have his name announced a little earlier. Fantasy owners may be a little leery of Kerry Collins as Moss' new quarterback. Say what you want about Collins, but he was arguably a top five fantasy quarterback in the final seven weeks of '04. And he didn't have the benefit of a Randy Moss or a running game, which was upgraded with the signing of LaMont Jordan. When I nabbed McGahee in the first round, Moss was one of the other players I was strongly considering … The Jones debate seems to be a buzz topic this preseason. The question is, would you prefer to have Kevin Jones or Julius Jones? I side with Julius, and so did this experts draft, where Julius went 16th overall and Kevin followed immediately after that. Proponents of Detroit's featured back point to a 4.7 yards per carry average in his rookie season and the fact that he led the NFL in rushing yards from Week 10 on. Arguments for the Cowboys' Jones are that Julius outperformed Kevin in the final seven weeks, where Julius received all but five of his carries on the season because of an injury in Week 2. In fact, head coach Bill Parcells gave Julius more carries than any other back in the league during the span of his seven starts. And Julius scored seven TDs in those starts, which was one more than Kevin had in 14 starts … Frankly, I would have been happy with either Jones with my 19th overall selection, but I wasn't privileged enough to have either one fall to me. I settled on St. Louis' Steven Jackson, who has more raw potential than either of the Jones', but has to contend with Marshall Faulk as a teammate. Jackson has been named the starter, but I'd hate to lose 10 carries a week to Faulk. My hope, and I think it's a decent one, is that Jackson proves to be too valuable for the Rams to sideline very often. I don't think it was coincidence that Jackson's two 100-yard performances in '04 came in the only games in which he received 20-plus carries. He's a load, and he's the type of running back that will wear down a defense over the course of four quarters.

3-1

Terrell Owens

Philadelphia

Wide receiver

3-2

Ronnie Brown

Miami

Running back

3-3

Antonio Gates

San Diego

Tight end

3-4

Fred Taylor

Jacksonville

Running back

3-5

Cedric Benson

Chicago

Running back

3-6

Carnell Williams

Tampa Bay

Running back

3-7

J.J. Arrington

Arizona

Running back

3-8

Marvin Harrison

Indianapolis

Wide receiver

3-9

Torry Holt

St. Louis

Wide receiver

3-10

Chad Johnson

Cincinnati

Wide receiver

3-11

Javon Walker

Green Bay

Wide receiver

3-12

Donovan McNabb

Philadelphia

Quarterback

Round 3 analysis:
Terrell Owens reared his head in the third round. At this point in the preseason, given the nature of his contentious contract situation, I have already decided I won't touch him. In my previous experts draft, I passed on Owens in favor of Marvin Harrison, simply because I didn't want to take the T.O. plunge. Ask yourself, how much worse off is a fantasy owner if he drafts Harrison instead of Owens and they both end up playing 16 games? The difference won't be huge, especially in a catches league, but Owens would be the favorite. Now, is the difference going to be large enough to make it worthwhile to gamble on Owens not holding out or getting suspended at some point in the season for conduct detrimental to the team? I'm saying, "No!" Owens is an obstinate individual and, while few players rarely carry holdout threats into the season, Owens' need to feel respected is greater than most. And I wouldn't raise an eyebrow if he did decide to follow this thing through. And the Eagles seem unwavering in their stance that they won't renegotiate his contract. Right now, I'm also inclined to take Torry Holt and Chad Johnson before Owens, as well … This league offers the ability to start three running backs each week, given the two starting RB spots and a flex spot (RB/WR). For that reason, I tripled up on running backs with my first three picks, going with Carnell Williams. My rationale was that I should secure one of the few remaining likely featured running backs in the league before that cupboard was emptied. As it turned out, I was still able to get value at wide reciever with the next few picks. If Williams somehow bombs, I believe my wideouts will be strong enough that I won't regret the three-running back gamble.

4-1

Warrick Dunn

Atlanta

Running back

4-2

Duce Staley

Pittsburgh

Running back

4-3

Joe Horn

New Orleans

Wide receiver

4-4

Tony Gonzalez

Kansas City

Tight end

4-5

Hines Ward

Pittsburgh

Wide receiver

4-6

Kevan Barlow

San Francisco

Running back

4-7

Drew Bennett

Tennessee

Wide receiver

4-8

DeShaun Foster

Carolina

Running back

4-9

Reggie Wayne

Indianapolis

Wide receiver

4-10

Andre Johnson

Houston

Wide receiver

4-11

Darrell Jackson

Seattle

Wide receiver

4-12

Michael Bennett

Minnesota

Running back

Round 4 analysis:
I wanted Hines Ward in this round, but his name was called two picks before mine. Ward is as steady as it comes, and he brings added value in catches leagues – average of 95 catches in the past four years. Ward's numbers were down last season as he was a victim of a conservative offense that looked to limit rookie QB Ben Roethlisberger's mistakes. But Ward stepped up large in the postseason(15 receptions, 214 yards, two TDs combined in two games) and Roethlisberger is going to be allowed to throw the ball more this season. With Plaxico Burress now with the Giants, Ward could push 100 receptions again as the Steelers go-to receiver, so long as Antwaan Randle El performs to a level that will keep defenses honest … Tony Gonzalez was a steal here, if only because he fell 13 picks after Antonio Gates. Gonzo had 21 more catches and nearly 300 more receiving yards than Gates, while Gates held a decided 13-7 advantage in touchdowns. Gates had a huge breakout season in '04, but an argument that he's a full round more valuable than Gonzalez is baseless, especially given that Gonzo has a six-year average of 80 catches, 986 yards and 8 TDs. In my other experts draft, these two TEs were separated by two picks … My choice came down to a decision between Drew Bennett and Andre Johnson. Johnson would have been the chic pick, but I opted for Bennett. My reasoning came down to the fact that Bennett should be a big part of the better passing offense. Bennett had 11 TDs last season, while the entire Texans team had just 16 throwing scores. And Tennessee has brought in USC offensive guru Norm Chow. The biggest change with Chow should be more short-yardage throws to keep Steve McNair healthy and to consistently keep the chains moving. At 6 foot 5, Bennett will be a nice, big target for those quick-hitter routes. And, again, I reference the fact that this is a receptions league. Bennett should improve upon his 80 receptions from last year given the new offensive schemes and the fact that he'll be the go-to receiver of the group.

5-1

Nate Burleson

Minnesota

Wide receiver

5-2

Roy Williams

Detroit

Wide receiver

5-3

Michael Clayton

Tampa Bay

Wide receiver

5-4

Steve Smith

Carolina

Wide receiver

5-5

Brandon Stokley

Indianapolis

Wide receiver

5-6

Anquan Boldin

Arizona

Wide receiver

5-7

Trent Green

Kansas City

Quarterback

5-8

Reuben Droughns

Cleveland

Running back

5-9

Laveranues Coles

NY Jets

Wide receiver

5-10

Derrick Mason

Baltimore

Wide receiver

5-11

Chris Chambers

Miami

Wide receiver

5-12

Donald Driver

Green Bay

Wide receiver

Round 5 analysis:
Wideouts ruled the fifth round, where 10 of the 12 picks were receivers. I nabbed the guy I wanted in Anquan Boldin – Love him! He'll excel with Kurt Warner as his quarterback. Boldin runs precise routes and Warner is an accurate passer. Boldin missed the first six games of '04 with a knee injury but, amazingly, he was able to step back into action and haul in the fifth-most receptions in the league during the span of his 10 games played … I thought the other receivers in this round merited the position that they were selected with the exception of Derrick Mason. In Baltimore, Mason is going to see a decline in the numbers he regularly produced in Tennessee. The Ravens are built for the run, and that's the focus of the offense. The team has ranked 32nd in the league the past two seasons in passing yards. It was also last in the league in yards per pass attempt last season and was 27th in the league two years ago. Clearly, the Ravens want to work towards becoming a more well-rounded offense, which is why they signed Mason and drafted rookie receiver Mark Clayton in the first round. Unfortunately, they are relying on Kyle Boller to make use of these talents, and he has left much to be desired in his two pro seasons. He has finished 30th and 31st in the league in QB rating, respectively, the past two seasons. And from my viewpoint on the couch, I just don't think he has what it takes to be a successful passer in the NFL.

6-1

Jason Witten

Dallas

Tight end

6-2

Brett Favre

Green Bay

Quarterback

6-3

Lee Suggs

Cleveland

Running back

6-4

Marc Bulger

St. Louis

Quarterback

6-5

Jeremy Shockey

NY Giants

Tight end

6-6

Isaac Bruce

St. Louis

Wide receiver

6-7

Marshall Faulk

St. Louis

Running back

6-8

Muhsin Muhammad

Chicago

Wide receiver

6-9

Michael Vick

Atlanta

Quarterback

6-10

Jerry Porter

Oakland

Wide receiver

6-11

Larry Fitzgerald

Arizona

Wide receiver

6-12

Lee Evans

Buffalo

Wide receiver

Round 6 analysis:
I opted to buy insurance in the sixth round. With Steven Jackson secured in Round 2, I wanted to make sure I had the St. Louis backfield real estate covered. Ideally, Faulk gets no more than a half-dozen carries a week. But the respect that he has banked during his career might earn him 10-12 carries a week. In that case, I'm in trouble. But this is a league that will not provide much RB waiver wire help during the season and, in a worst-case scenario, putting them both in my starting lineup if injuries to my other RBs force that move wouldn't be the end of the world … Muhsin Muhammad falls into the same category as Derrick Mason – players who moved from the penthouse to the outhouse during the offseason. Chicago has had just one 10-TD receiver since 1970. Those who believe that an offense with this kind of history can suddenly break from that mold behind a quarterback who has logged just six games (Rex Grossman) have much greater faith than I do.

7-1

Jimmy Smith

Jacksonville

Wide receiver

7-2

Larry Johnson

Kansas City

Running back

7-3

Ashley Lelie

Denver

Wide receiver

7-4

Deion Branch

New England

Wide receiver

7-5

Plaxico Burress

NY Giants

Wide receiver

7-6

Eric Moulds

Buffalo

Wide receiver

7-7

Alge Crumpler

Atlanta

Tight end

7-8

Santana Moss

Washington

Wide receiver

7-9

Keyshawn Johnson

Dallas

Wide receiver

7-10

T.J. Duckett

Atlanta

Running back

7-11

Rod Smith

Denver

Wide receiver

7-12

T.J. Houshmandzadeh

Cincinnati

Wide receiver

Round 7 analysis:
Round 7 was another that was heavy on receivers (nine of the 12 picks). My favorites were, of course, Eric Moulds (my pick), Deion Branch and T.J. Houshmandzadeh. Moulds is just a couple seasons removed from hauling in 100 catches for 1,292 yards and 10 TDs. The Bills have gone through a rough offensive stretch since then, but they started to emerge in the second half of '04 behind the legs of Willis McGahee. With a RB to garner the opposition's attention and a fellow wideout who is every bit as dangerous (Lee Evans), Moulds is going to be able to use his large, athletic frame to manhandle single coverage. I'm counting on 1,200 yards and 8-10 TDs … The knock on Branch's fantasy value in the past has been that New England spread the ball around too much. That will be less of a concern this season as David Patten has defected to Washington and Troy Brown (33 years old) has faded into a secondary role. Branch, the Super Bowl MVP, is electric with the ball in his hands, and he'll see more opportunities to handle the rock in '05 … I managed to attain Houshmandzadeh in my previous draft, and I'll head into each subsequent draft looking to get him in Rounds 8-10. He quietly accrued 73 catches and 978 receiving yards last season, and only Muhsin Muhammad caught more passes than Houshmandzadeh in the final five weeks of '04. With Peter Warrick a big injury question mark for this season, Houshmandzadeh will continue to see plenty of opportunities in what is shaping up to be one of the league's better offenses.

8-1

Jerome Bettis

Pittsburgh

Running back

8-2

Mewelde Moore

Minnesota

Running back

8-3

Kerry Collins

Oakland

Quarterback

8-4

Correll Buckhalter

Philadelphia

Running back

8-5

Travis Henry

Buffalo

Running back

8-6

Justin McCareins

NY Jets

Wide receiver

8-7

Dallas Clark

Indianapolis

Tight end

8-8

Eddie Kennison

Kansas City

Wide receiver

8-9

Todd Heap

Baltimore

Tight end

8-10

Michael Pittman

Tampa Bay

Running back

8-11

Matt Hasselbeck

Seattle

Quarterback

8-12

Jake Plummer

Denver

Quarterback

Round 8 analysis:
Round 8 saw a change in draft strategy for many. With most of the team's skill-position starters secured, it was time to start thinking about a backup plan. Likely non-starters Jerome Bettis, Mewelde Moore, Correll Buckhalter, Travis Henry and Michael Pittman all came off the board in this round. My personal favorite is Henry, who I just can't imagine will be asked to rot on the bench for the Bills, yet again. Some team is going to suffer an injury at running back during the preseason and be willing to meet the Bills' asking price for Henry. When that happens, Henry becomes the steal of the draft. … Dallas Clark is another of those players that will be wearing a Funston jersey often this season. He's on my list of "targeted" players for '05. Clark's one of those TEs that raises eyebrows when he catches the ball in stride in the open field. He's not built like a receiver, but he sure runs like one. His 16.9 yards per reception last season would have qualified for 10th-best in the league had he hauled in five more catches (need 30 receptions to qualify). And with Marcus Pollard off to Detroit, Clark is going see more opportunities than ever before.

9-1

Carson Palmer

Cincinnati

Quarterback

9-2

Randy McMichael

Miami

Tight end

9-3

Aaron Brooks

New Orleans

Quarterback

9-4

Donte' Stallworth

New Orleans

Wide receiver

9-5

Buffalo

Bills

Defense

9-6

Ricky Williams

Miami

Running back

9-7

Baltimore

Ravens

Defense

9-8

Tom Brady

New England

Quarterback

9-9

New England

Patriots

Defense

9-10

LaBrandon Toefield

Jacksonville

Running back

9-11

Eric Shelton

Carolina

Running back

9-12

Antwaan Randle El

Pittsburgh

Wide receiver

10-1

Braylon Edwards

Cleveland

Wide receiver

10-2

Eric Johnson

San Francisco

Tight end

10-3

Thomas Jones

Chicago

Running back

10-4

Charles Rogers

Detroit

Wide receiver

10-5

Tyrone Calico

Tennessee

Wide receiver

10-6

Troy Williamson

Minnesota

Wide receiver

10-7

Jake Delhomme

Carolina

Quarterback

10-8

Mike Williams

Detroit

Wide receiver

10-9

Stephen Davis

Carolina

Running back

10-10

Frank Gore

San Francisco

Running back

10-11

David Akers

Philadelphia

Kicker

10-12

Derrick Blaylock

NY Jets

Running back

11-1

Pittsburgh

Steelers

Defense

11-2

Maurice Clarett

Denver

Running back

11-3

Keary Colbert

Carolina

Wide receiver

11-4

Dominic Rhodes

Indianapolis

Running back

11-5

Chester Taylor

Baltimore

Running back

11-6

Keenan McCardell

San Diego

Wide receivers

11-7

Drew Brees

San Diego

Quarterback

11-8

Adam Vinatieri

New England

Kicker

11-9

Mike Vanderjagt

Indianapolis

Kicker

11-10

Kurt Warner

Arizona

Quarterback

11-11

Amani Toomer

NY Giants

Wide receiver

11-12

Ciatrick Fason

Minnesota

Running back

12-1

Mark Clayton

Baltimore

Wide receiver

12-2

Chad Pennington

NY Jets

Quarterback

12-3

Atlanta

Falcons

Defense

12-4

Brandon Lloyd

San Francisco

Wide receiver

12-5

Koren Robinson

Seattle

Wide receiver

12-6

Sebastian Janikowski

Oakland

Kicker

12-7

Dallas

Cowboys

Defense

12-8

Jeb Putzier

Denver

Tight end

12-9

Brandon Jacobs

NY Giants

Running back

12-10

Maurice Morris

Seattle

Running back

12-11

David Givens

New England

Wide receiver

12-12

Marcus Pollard

Detroit

Tight end

13-1

Najeh Davenport

Green Bay

Running back

13-2

Philadelphia

Eagles

Defense

13-3

Cincinnati

Bengals

Defense

13-4

Indianapolis

Colts

Defense

13-5

Jason Elam

Denver

Kicker

13-6

Joey Harrington

Detroit

Quarterback

13-7

Peerless Price

Atlanta

Wide receiver

13-8

Steve McNair

Tennessee

Quarterback

13-9

Vernand Morency

Houston

Running back

13-10

Jermaine Wiggins

Minnesota

Tight end

13-11

Shayne Graham

Cincinnati

Kicker

13-12

Carolina

Panthers

Defense

14-1

Ryan Longwell

Green Bay

Kicker

14-2

Tampa Bay

Buccaneers

Defense

14-3

Josh Brown

Seattle

Kicker

14-4

David Carr

Houston

Quarterback

14-5

Chicago

Bears

Defense

14-6

Anthony Thomas

Dallas

Running back

14-7

Nate Kaeding

San Diego

Kicker

14-8

Chris Perry

Cincinnati

Running back

14-9

Matt Stover

Baltimore

Kicker

14-10

Mike Nugent

NY Jets

Kicker

14-11

Brian Griese

Tampa Bay

Quarterback

14-12

Jeff Reed

Pittsburgh

Kicker