Fantasy Baseball Top 100
Well, the Major Leaguers officially reported for duty. The jam-packed planes have touched down in Arizona and Florida. And there's been a Jose Canseco sighting in Dodgertown! Does it get any better?
As I promised last week, the focus of this week's piece is to unveil my Top 100. I've put a lot of thought into these, trying to figure out the balance of power, speed and pitching dominance. Who's a five-tool stud? Where does the guy that dominates three categories fit in?
I'd like to tell you that I developed a highly complex mathematical model on a white board. I'd like to tell you that Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Big Stein himself have been beating down my door for the secret formula.
But I'm an honest man. I moved players up and down this list as new ones emerged and others got bumped. I went through three-year histories, offseason movement and a lot of theory and speculation to come up with this list.
There's certainly a lot of debate around the water coolers and lunch tables over where certain players rank. I welcome your comments on the list. Which obvious player did I leave off? Who's too high? Who didn't I show enough love to? And who's your sleeper pick of the year?
So without further adieu, here's my Top 100 list as Spring Training opens.
The Top 100 | |||
Rank | Player | Team, Position | Comment |
1. | NYY, SS* | You can only hope to contain him. | |
2. | Texas, 2B | Sticking to my guns with a 35/35 stud. | |
3. | St. Louis, OF | What can he do if the Cards are healthy? | |
4. | Kansas City, OF | A run at 40/40 is inevitable. | |
5. | Boston, SP | Five straight years with a sub-2.4 ERA. | |
6. | Anaheim, OF | Back injury scary. But if he's right ... | |
7. | Chicago Cubs, SP | Cy Young in the offing. Will the ghost of Bartman haunt him? | |
8. | Colorado, 1B | Career .337 hitter and averages 36 HRs. | |
9. | NYY, OF | Power breeds contempt. 40 HR, 120 RBI at a minimum. | |
10. | Boston, SP | New dynamic duo with Pedro. Pencil in 18 Ws. | |
11. | San Francisco, OF | Still does it all. Needs healthy Durham to boost RBI output. | |
12. | Los Angeles, RP | 50 saves and sub-2.00 ERA, he is dominance personified. | |
13. | Toronto, SP | Two brilliant seasons in a row, primed for third. | |
14. | Boston, SS | Not quite fourth as in Matt's draft, but 120 RBI speaks loudly. | |
15. | Oakland, SP | Will the bullpen be kinder to him in '04? | |
16. | CWS, OF | Does it all and entering his prime. | |
17. | Chicago Cubs, SP | HBP added to WHIP means lots of potential earned runs. | |
18. | Boston, OF | RBI machine just gets it done. | |
19. | San Francisco, SP | A sub-1.00 WHIP and 200 Ks. He'll push for 20 Ws. | |
20. | Toronto, OF | Run producer in an explosive offense. Let him run! | |
21. | St. Louis, SS | Five-tools – and more power very possible. | |
22. | Toronto, 1B | 100+ RBI six years running. | |
23. | Philadelphia, OF | Averages more than 25 steals and 100 RBI for last five years. | |
24. | Ichiro Suzuki | Seattle, OF | Will his power numbers rise this year to complete the package? |
25. | Atlanta, SS | Stolen bases plus new-found pop. Set to bust out in '04. | |
26. | Atlanta, RP | 2nd only to Gagne. Just needs the opportunities | |
27. | Oakland, SP | 14-12 with 3.18 ERA in '03. Can the A's score more than three per game? | |
28. | Arizona, SP | Healthy and ready to dominate. | |
29. | Chicago Cubs, OF | Average is back to normal, but six straight 40 HR, 100 RBI seasons. | |
30. | Philadelphia, 1B | Monster output. He'll crank out another 45 HR season. | |
31. | Florida, OF | Speed kills. He'll put you near the top of the category by himself. | |
32. | Philadelphia, RP | Big mover. Solid staff gets him to Gagne-like save totals. | |
33. | Baltimore, SS | Smaller yard and potent lineup. 2002 MVP season is nothing compared to what he can do. | |
34. | NYY, RP | Only the potent Yankees lineup limits his possibilities. | |
35. | NYY, SP | From the never-ending road trip to the Bronx. He's for real. | |
36. | Seattle, 2B | Added speed to go with big bat in 2003. Can he break 20 SBs? | |
37. | NYY, SP | Innings eater and win machine. Boost your Ks. | |
38. | Oakland, SP | Round three of Oakland's triumverate. He's got the goods. | |
39. | Anaheim, OF | Five straight 100+ RBI seasons. Welcome aboard Vlad. | |
40. | Houston, 2B | 100+ RBI in six of last seven seasons. Narrow miss in '03. | |
41. | Florida, SP | World Series is a catapult to big '04. | |
42. | NYY, 1B | .250 average will never happen again. He was in the top 10 last year. | |
43. | Boston RP | He'll need to keep the ball down in Fenway, but he'll get opportunities. | |
44. | Montreal, SS | Five-tool SS – currently being stolen by managers in eight round. | |
45. | Houston, 1B | 39 HRs and 100 RBI is a down year? | |
46. | NYY, SS | Average is up and should get his stolen base total back up. | |
47. | Houston, OF | Should return to 40 HRs with healthy heart of the order. | |
48. | CWS, OF | Turned into a five-tool guy in '03. Looking to Konerko and Thomas to continue his ascent. | |
49. | St. Louis, 3B | Big effort in partial year with Cards. He'll push toward 40 HRs in '04. | |
50. | Tampa Bay, 1B/OF | The secret is out. This guy's a sure 35 HR, 110 RBI producer. | |
51. | Arizona, 1B | Big bat heads West. Averaged 40 HRs, 117 RBIs over last three seasons. | |
52. | San Diego, OF | 30 HRs in four of past five years and career .300 hitter. | |
53. | Atlanta, OF | Loses part of supporting cast, but still a fantasy producer. | |
54. | NYM, SS | Welcome to the show. Speed and pop | |
55. | Colorado, OF | Home runs and RBI continue to roll in Colorado. | |
56. | Atlanta, OF | 35 HRs per year now, but what about the speed? | |
57. | Oakland, 3B | Last man standing in Oaktown, but still huge 3B value. | |
58. | Baltimore, C | Ability to DH means that he can reach his '03 output. | |
59. | NYM, SS** | Showed great promise in half of season of '03. .300 average and 30 steals is in sight. | |
60. | CWS, SP | Fantasy managers should believe. He's being picked in the fifth round of most drafts thus far. | |
61. | Arizona, OF | 30 HR, 100 RBI if his elbow is sound. | |
62. | NYY, C | Add to the pile of 100 RBI producers for Bombers Revisited. | |
63. | Anaheim, SP | A strikeouts and innings eater, Colorn has an opportunity in the AL West. | |
64. | Houston, SP | Five-category starter. Run support will be high. | |
65. | Detroit, C | 20 HR, 85 RBI and 10 steals in the move to Detroit. DH opportunities will keep him in the lineup. | |
66. | Texas, 3B | He did what no one else could do in '03. He hit Gagne. Superstardom awaits. | |
67. | Los Angeles, OF | Bounce-back year on the horizon. | |
68. | Houston, RP | Has a chance to close out games for unbelievable staff. | |
69. | Milwaukee, OF | One of six to hit the 40-steal mark in '03. Will he add some pop to complement the speed? | |
70. | Florida, 2B | Steals were down in '03. He'll be running to start the new season. | |
71. | Houston, SP | Welcome back Rocket. Will having to bat change his style? | |
72. | Tampa Bay, OF | Big stolen base total adds to solid average and RBI total. | |
73. | Anaheim, RP | Health and opportunity this season. 30 saves in seven of last eight seasons. | |
74. | St. Louis, SP | Ks down in '03 – he'll return to form and 20 Ws. | |
75. | NYM, C | 30 HRs in eight of nine years – health brings him back to elite status. | |
76. | Atlanta, 2B | 20 HR, 80 RBI and over .300 average. Currently found at a bargain in the 11th round in most drafts. | |
77. | Chicago Cubs, 1B | Home run power a plus in Wrigley. Plus he won't have to face that staff. | |
78. | Los Angeles, SP | Low ERA and WHIP with tons of Ks. | |
79. | CWS, 1B | Still potent, with 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 runs – .300 is also possible. | |
80. | Houston, SP | WHIP raises eyebrows. We'll see if the style changes away from NY. | |
81. | San Diego, 1B/OF | Health is always a concern, but 40 HR possibility if sound. | |
82. | St. Louis, RP | Dominant closer slips under the radar. 40+ saves is possible. | |
83. | Kansas City, SS | 17 bombs and 20 steals in '03. He'll only get better. | |
84. | Tampa Bay, OF | Star potential. Fifty-five steals in '03 ranked second in MLB. | |
85. | Philadelphia, SP | Solid W total and Ks to boot. WHIP and ERA average at best. | |
86. | Boston, OF | 100 runs and 30 SBs a given. Huge value in big Boston lineup. | |
87. | San Diego, RP | Was sharp in his return last season. 40 saves to come. | |
88. | Pittsburgh, C | Let him run! High average adds value from the C position. | |
89. | Baltimore, SP | Back in Baltimore with new offensive toys. | |
90. | Anaheim, 3B | Healthy Glaus has 40 HR and 110 RBI potential. | |
91. | Kansas City, 1B | Healthy Sweeney great value once your middle infield is secured. | |
92. | Minnesota, RP | 6-2 in August and September, threat for 20 Ws and 200 Ks. | |
93. | Arizona, SP | Had four of five categories in '03. He'll add the wins. | |
94. | Texas, 1B/3B | 26 HRs and 84 RBI in year one – he's set to explode. | |
95. | Florida, 3B | Four straight 90+ RBI seasons at valuable 3B position. | |
96. | Chicago Cubs, RP | Many opportunities with the staff assembled at Wrigley. | |
97. | Minnesota, OF | Value soars if he starts running again. | |
98. | Mike Young | Texas, 2B*** | Provides a boost in all categories from 2B. |
99. | Boston, C | Don't expect 25 HRs again, but 15-20 is nice punch from the catcher position. | |
100. | NYY, OF | He'll boost his power numbers and hit the magic 100 RBI total. | |
* Rodriguez to gain 3B eligibility once he plays 15 games at the position in 2004. |
Now, I based my rankings in the framework of a traditional 5x5 rotisserie league. Clearly these players and their relative values will shift in accordance with the rules set forth in your league. If your league doesn't value speed, then Podsednik, Crawford and several others lose the bulk of their value in the pool of outfielders.
The list above constitutes only one vision of how to look at players and their contributions. Some lists lean more toward youth and would downgrade players such as Clemens and Thomas, while others rank players position by position to start. I like to work from the larger list and begin to break it down from there.
Hopefully these statistical nuggets offered food for thought, especially on those players so consistent they remain somewhat invisible. And it goes without saying that lists of this type should be continually revised to reflect news out of Spring Training until your league's draft.
I've got my red pen out. Let's play some ball.
Happy drafting.