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Fantasy Baseball Top 100

Well, the Major Leaguers officially reported for duty. The jam-packed planes have touched down in Arizona and Florida. And there's been a Jose Canseco sighting in Dodgertown! Does it get any better?

As I promised last week, the focus of this week's piece is to unveil my Top 100. I've put a lot of thought into these, trying to figure out the balance of power, speed and pitching dominance. Who's a five-tool stud? Where does the guy that dominates three categories fit in?

I'd like to tell you that I developed a highly complex mathematical model on a white board. I'd like to tell you that Billy Beane, Theo Epstein and Big Stein himself have been beating down my door for the secret formula.

But I'm an honest man. I moved players up and down this list as new ones emerged and others got bumped. I went through three-year histories, offseason movement and a lot of theory and speculation to come up with this list.

There's certainly a lot of debate around the water coolers and lunch tables over where certain players rank. I welcome your comments on the list. Which obvious player did I leave off? Who's too high? Who didn't I show enough love to? And who's your sleeper pick of the year?

So without further adieu, here's my Top 100 list as Spring Training opens.

The Top 100

Rank

Player

Team, Position

Comment

1.

Alex Rodriguez

NYY, SS*

You can only hope to contain him.

2.

Alfonso Soriano

Texas, 2B

Sticking to my guns with a 35/35 stud.

3.

Albert Pujols

St. Louis, OF

What can he do if the Cards are healthy?

4.

Carlos Beltran

Kansas City, OF

A run at 40/40 is inevitable.

5.

Pedro Martinez

Boston, SP

Five straight years with a sub-2.4 ERA.

6.

Vladimir Guerrero

Anaheim, OF

Back injury scary. But if he's right ...

7.

Mark Prior

Chicago Cubs, SP

Cy Young in the offing. Will the ghost of Bartman haunt him?

8.

Todd Helton

Colorado, 1B

Career .337 hitter and averages 36 HRs.

9.

Gary Sheffield

NYY, OF

Power breeds contempt. 40 HR, 120 RBI at a minimum.

10.

Curt Schilling

Boston, SP

New dynamic duo with Pedro. Pencil in 18 Ws.

11.

Barry Bonds

San Francisco, OF

Still does it all. Needs healthy Durham to boost RBI output.

12.

Eric Gagne

Los Angeles, RP

50 saves and sub-2.00 ERA, he is dominance personified.

13.

Roy Halladay

Toronto, SP

Two brilliant seasons in a row, primed for third.

14.

Nomar Garciaparra

Boston, SS

Not quite fourth as in Matt's draft, but 120 RBI speaks loudly.

15.

Tim Hudson

Oakland, SP

Will the bullpen be kinder to him in '04?

16.

Magglio Ordonez

CWS, OF

Does it all and entering his prime.

17.

Kerry Wood

Chicago Cubs, SP

HBP added to WHIP means lots of potential earned runs.

18.

Manny Ramirez

Boston, OF

RBI machine just gets it done.

19.

Jason Schmidt

San Francisco, SP

A sub-1.00 WHIP and 200 Ks. He'll push for 20 Ws.

20.

Vernon Wells

Toronto, OF

Run producer in an explosive offense. Let him run!

21.

Edgar Renteria

St. Louis, SS

Five-tools – and more power very possible.

22.

Carlos Delgado

Toronto, 1B

100+ RBI six years running.

23.

Bobby Abreu

Philadelphia, OF

Averages more than 25 steals and 100 RBI for last five years.

24.

Ichiro Suzuki

Seattle, OF

Will his power numbers rise this year to complete the package?

25.

Rafael Furcal

Atlanta, SS

Stolen bases plus new-found pop. Set to bust out in '04.

26.

John Smoltz

Atlanta, RP

2nd only to Gagne. Just needs the opportunities

27.

Barry Zito

Oakland, SP

14-12 with 3.18 ERA in '03. Can the A's score more than three per game?

28.

Randy Johnson

Arizona, SP

Healthy and ready to dominate.

29.

Sammy Sosa

Chicago Cubs, OF

Average is back to normal, but six straight 40 HR, 100 RBI seasons.

30.

Jim Thome

Philadelphia, 1B

Monster output. He'll crank out another 45 HR season.

31.

Juan Pierre

Florida, OF

Speed kills. He'll put you near the top of the category by himself.

32.

Billy Wagner

Philadelphia, RP

Big mover. Solid staff gets him to Gagne-like save totals.

33.

Miguel Tejada

Baltimore, SS

Smaller yard and potent lineup. 2002 MVP season is nothing compared to what he can do.

34.

Mariano Rivera

NYY, RP

Only the potent Yankees lineup limits his possibilities.

35.

Javier Vazquez

NYY, SP

From the never-ending road trip to the Bronx. He's for real.

36.

Bret Boone

Seattle, 2B

Added speed to go with big bat in 2003. Can he break 20 SBs?

37.

Mike Mussina

NYY, SP

Innings eater and win machine. Boost your Ks.

38.

Mark Mulder

Oakland, SP

Round three of Oakland's triumverate. He's got the goods.

39.

Garret Anderson

Anaheim, OF

Five straight 100+ RBI seasons. Welcome aboard Vlad.

40.

Jeff Kent

Houston, 2B

100+ RBI in six of last seven seasons. Narrow miss in '03.

41.

Josh Beckett

Florida, SP

World Series is a catapult to big '04.

42.

Jason Giambi

NYY, 1B

.250 average will never happen again. He was in the top 10 last year.

43.

Keith Foulke

Boston RP

He'll need to keep the ball down in Fenway, but he'll get opportunities.

44.

Orlando Cabrera

Montreal, SS

Five-tool SS – currently being stolen by managers in eight round.

45.

Jeff Bagwell

Houston, 1B

39 HRs and 100 RBI is a down year?

46.

Derek Jeter

NYY, SS

Average is up and should get his stolen base total back up.

47.

Lance Berkman

Houston, OF

Should return to 40 HRs with healthy heart of the order.

48.

Carlos Lee

CWS, OF

Turned into a five-tool guy in '03. Looking to Konerko and Thomas to continue his ascent.

49.

Scott Rolen

St. Louis, 3B

Big effort in partial year with Cards. He'll push toward 40 HRs in '04.

50.

Aubrey Huff

Tampa Bay, 1B/OF

The secret is out. This guy's a sure 35 HR, 110 RBI producer.

51.

Richie Sexson

Arizona, 1B

Big bat heads West. Averaged 40 HRs, 117 RBIs over last three seasons.

52.

Brian Giles

San Diego, OF

30 HRs in four of past five years and career .300 hitter.

53.

Chipper Jones

Atlanta, OF

Loses part of supporting cast, but still a fantasy producer.

54.

Kazuo Matsui

NYM, SS

Welcome to the show. Speed and pop

55.

Preston Wilson

Colorado, OF

Home runs and RBI continue to roll in Colorado.

56.

Andruw Jones

Atlanta, OF

35 HRs per year now, but what about the speed?

57.

Eric Chavez

Oakland, 3B

Last man standing in Oaktown, but still huge 3B value.

58.

Javy Lopez

Baltimore, C

Ability to DH means that he can reach his '03 output.

59.

Jose Reyes

NYM, SS**

Showed great promise in half of season of '03. .300 average and 30 steals is in sight.

60.

Esteban Loaiza

CWS, SP

Fantasy managers should believe. He's being picked in the fifth round of most drafts thus far.

61.

Luis Gonzalez

Arizona, OF

30 HR, 100 RBI if his elbow is sound.

62.

Jorge Posada

NYY, C

Add to the pile of 100 RBI producers for Bombers Revisited.

63.

Bartolo Colon

Anaheim, SP

A strikeouts and innings eater, Colorn has an opportunity in the AL West.

64.

Roy Oswalt

Houston, SP

Five-category starter. Run support will be high.

65.

Ivan Rodriguez

Detroit, C

20 HR, 85 RBI and 10 steals in the move to Detroit. DH opportunities will keep him in the lineup.

66.

Hank Blalock

Texas, 3B

He did what no one else could do in '03. He hit Gagne. Superstardom awaits.

67.

Shawn Green

Los Angeles, OF

Bounce-back year on the horizon.

68.

Octavio Dotel

Houston, RP

Has a chance to close out games for unbelievable staff.

69.

Scott Podsednik

Milwaukee, OF

One of six to hit the 40-steal mark in '03. Will he add some pop to complement the speed?

70.

Luis Castillo

Florida, 2B

Steals were down in '03. He'll be running to start the new season.

71.

Roger Clemens

Houston, SP

Welcome back Rocket. Will having to bat change his style?

72.

Rocco Baldelli

Tampa Bay, OF

Big stolen base total adds to solid average and RBI total.

73.

Troy Percival

Anaheim, RP

Health and opportunity this season. 30 saves in seven of last eight seasons.

74.

Matt Morris

St. Louis, SP

Ks down in '03 – he'll return to form and 20 Ws.

75.

Mike Piazza

NYM, C

30 HRs in eight of nine years – health brings him back to elite status.

76.

Marcus Giles

Atlanta, 2B

20 HR, 80 RBI and over .300 average. Currently found at a bargain in the 11th round in most drafts.

77.

Derrek Lee

Chicago Cubs, 1B

Home run power a plus in Wrigley. Plus he won't have to face that staff.

78.

Hideo Nomo

Los Angeles, SP

Low ERA and WHIP with tons of Ks.

79.

Frank Thomas

CWS, 1B

Still potent, with 40 HR, 100 RBI, 100 runs – .300 is also possible.

80.

Andy Pettitte

Houston, SP

WHIP raises eyebrows. We'll see if the style changes away from NY.

81.

Phil Nevin

San Diego, 1B/OF

Health is always a concern, but 40 HR possibility if sound.

82.

Jason Isringhausen

St. Louis, RP

Dominant closer slips under the radar. 40+ saves is possible.

83.

Angel Berroa

Kansas City, SS

17 bombs and 20 steals in '03. He'll only get better.

84.

Carl Crawford

Tampa Bay, OF

Star potential. Fifty-five steals in '03 ranked second in MLB.

85.

Randy Wolf

Philadelphia, SP

Solid W total and Ks to boot. WHIP and ERA average at best.

86.

Johnny Damon

Boston, OF

100 runs and 30 SBs a given. Huge value in big Boston lineup.

87.

Trevor Hoffman

San Diego, RP

Was sharp in his return last season. 40 saves to come.

88.

Jason Kendall

Pittsburgh, C

Let him run! High average adds value from the C position.

89.

Sidney Ponson

Baltimore, SP

Back in Baltimore with new offensive toys.

90.

Troy Glaus

Anaheim, 3B

Healthy Glaus has 40 HR and 110 RBI potential.

91.

Mike Sweeney

Kansas City, 1B

Healthy Sweeney great value once your middle infield is secured.

92.

Johan Santana

Minnesota, RP

6-2 in August and September, threat for 20 Ws and 200 Ks.

93.

Brandon Webb

Arizona, SP

Had four of five categories in '03. He'll add the wins.

94.

Mark Teixeira

Texas, 1B/3B

26 HRs and 84 RBI in year one – he's set to explode.

95.

Mike Lowell

Florida, 3B

Four straight 90+ RBI seasons at valuable 3B position.

96.

Joe Borowski

Chicago Cubs, RP

Many opportunities with the staff assembled at Wrigley.

97.

Torii Hunter

Minnesota, OF

Value soars if he starts running again.

98.

Mike Young

Texas, 2B***

Provides a boost in all categories from 2B.

99.

Jason Varitek

Boston, C

Don't expect 25 HRs again, but 15-20 is nice punch from the catcher position.

100.

Hideki Matsui

NYY, OF

He'll boost his power numbers and hit the magic 100 RBI total.

* Rodriguez to gain 3B eligibility once he plays 15 games at the position in 2004.
** Reyes to gain 2B eligibility once he plays 15 games at the position in 2004.
*** Young to gain SS eligibility once he plays 15 games at the position in 2004.

Now, I based my rankings in the framework of a traditional 5x5 rotisserie league. Clearly these players and their relative values will shift in accordance with the rules set forth in your league. If your league doesn't value speed, then Podsednik, Crawford and several others lose the bulk of their value in the pool of outfielders.

The list above constitutes only one vision of how to look at players and their contributions. Some lists lean more toward youth and would downgrade players such as Clemens and Thomas, while others rank players position by position to start. I like to work from the larger list and begin to break it down from there.

Hopefully these statistical nuggets offered food for thought, especially on those players so consistent they remain somewhat invisible. And it goes without saying that lists of this type should be continually revised to reflect news out of Spring Training until your league's draft.

I've got my red pen out. Let's play some ball.

Happy drafting.